Home > Explore Data & Reports > Parameter estimation using an ensemble smoother: the effect of the circulation in biological estimation


Smith, K.W., D.J. McGillicuddy, and D.R. Lynch. 2009. Parameter estimation using an ensemble smoother: the effect of the circulation in biological estimation. Journal of Marine Systems, 76(1-2):162-170. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmarsys.2008.05.017

Data/Report Type:

Sponsored Research


An ensemble smoother is used to estimate the initial conditions and mortality rates for a spatially explicit model of Alexandrium fundyense. The data assimilation procedure is effective at reducing model-data misfit in this strong constraint problem formulation. The skill of this estimation procedure is assessed through cross-validation. The estimation is carried out with three different representations of circulation: no flow, climatology, and a data assimilative hindcast. Although the misfit to the assimilated data is lowest with no flow, the skill of the biological hindcast is best with the hindcast and climatological velocity fields. Mortality estimates fall within the range of observed values, but the inferred spatial structure is not testable with existing data.

Note to readers with disabilities: Some scientific publications linked from this website may not conform to Section 508 accessibility standards due to the complexity of the information being presented. If you need assistance accessing this electronic content, please contact the lead/corresponding author, Primary Contact, or nccos.webcontent@noaa.gov.

Explore Similar Data/Reports


NCCOS delivers ecosystem science solutions for stewardship of the nation’s ocean and coastal resources to sustain thriving coastal communities and economies.

Stay Connected

Sign up for our quarterly newsletter or view our archives.

Follow us on Social

Listen to our Podcast

Check our our new podcast "Coastal Conversations"