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First Steps in Creating a Harmful Algal Bloom Forecast for the Kodiak Archipelago 

Steve Kibler (NCCOS) deploying an instrument to collect hydrographic data from Chiniak Bay, Kodiak.

The Kodiak Archipelago in Alaska historically has reported high levels of paralytic shellfish poisoning (PSP), comprising of 25% of all PSP cases in the state in 2022. The outbreaks of this potentially fatal illness are caused by neurotoxins produced by the dinoflagellate Alexandrium catenella, accumulating in consumable shellfish when harmful algal blooms (HABs) occur in the spring and summer months. Subsistence harvesting of clams and other shellfish is a culturally significant food resource in the Kodiak Archipelago, particularly for Native communities who call the area home. The increased severity and intensity of Alaskan HABs in recent years has impacted this subsistence food security in the Archipelago, as well as stunted the development of the Kodiak mariculture industry. 

Development of a HAB forecast to inform communities of the location and severity of HABs is informed by in-water sample collection and mapping to find out when and where blooms are occurring, and to determine patterns in cell and Alexandrium cyst distribution. Scientists from Alaska Sea Grant, Kodiak Area Native Association (KANA), and NOAA NCCOS just completed the second of three mapping surveys of an Alexandrium bloom in the coastal waters surrounding Kodiak. The data from these surveys will be provided to Tribal environmental monitors, subsistence harvesters, and shellfish farmers in Kodiak to help guide local aquaculture development, support community HAB monitoring, and help safeguard human health. Using bloom locations combined with data on Alexandrium cyst distribution from the first HAB cyst survey in the Kodiak Archipelago and environmental and meteorological information, NCCOS will be able to create a forecast and early warning system for toxic HABs that could help save lives and prevent more occurrences of PSP. This project will inform both subsistence harvest and developing mariculture in Kodiak waters.

The project is supported by the NCCOS Monitoring and Event Response for Harmful Algal Blooms (MERHAB) Research Program. The work builds on past research by project team members in the region and benefits from collaborations with key partners, including the Knik Tribe of Alaska, Sitka Tribe of Alaska Environmental Research Lab, and several Tribal organizations within the Kodiak region.

Leanne Poussard (NCCOS) in the foreground and Tyler Harman (CSS contractor to NCCOS) in the background processing water samples for HAB cell abundance and toxin concentrations.